Saturday, August 27, 2011
Town of Surf City Nc lifts curfew at 10am Sunday 8-27-2011
8-27-11 - 2:00 pm Irene update posted.
ONWASA has contacted Town Hall and they are in the process of restoring water service. I do not know the exact time but they are in the process of restoring.
8-27-11 - Surf City has lifted curfew. Still receiving strong winds and heavy periods of rain. Power and water are on for Surf City-Pender County. ONWASA water customers within Surf City are without water at this time. Onslow County
8-27-11 - Mayor Zander Guy has just announced that the curfew will be lifted at 10:00 am Saturday morning. Currently 9:40 am we are having strong winds and heavy rain. Only minor damages reported on the Island. Hopefully Irene will be completely past Surf City by 3:00 pm today. Please be safe when returning to Surf City.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Pender, New Hanover Brunwick Counties are in Hurricane Warning
NWS Wilmington, NC Summary: Surf City is in Hurricane Warning area. Average 40-55mph with gusts to 75mph. Storm surf 4-6feet above normal high tide. Worst case flooding will be in low areas on the island and localised 2 feet of flooding
Topsail beach & Surf City issue Voluntary Evacuations
NWS Wilmington:
/O.CON.KILM.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
758 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD COMPLETE ANY PLANS
TO SECURE OF THEIR BOATS FOR THE STORM.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 40 PERCENT.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS NEAR 100 PERCENT.
...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 KNOT RANGE WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 85 KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 10
TO 12 FEET NEARSHORE TO AS HIGH AS 21 FEET AT 20 MILES DISTANCE
FROM SHORE.
$$
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Topsail beach Issues voluntary Evacuation as of 10am 8-25-2011 Surf City & North topsail Issue voluntary Evacuation starting 2pm 8-25-2011
VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS
Attention residents and visitors, the Topsail Beach Town Board of Commissioners declared a voluntary evacuation effective at 10:00 a.m. Thursday, August 25, 2011. Please consider this in deciding whether to remain or leave. If you have a small vehicle, please take this into consideration due to possible flooding well in advance of the storm. Please contact 328-4851 if you have further questions.
We will post information on our Facebook page Town of Topsail Beach and our web page www.topsailbeach.org. The Town Hall number is 910-328-5841. Once our EOC is operational, we will supply that number as well.
We will post information on our Facebook page Town of Topsail Beach and our web page www.topsailbeach.org. The Town Hall number is 910-328-5841. Once our EOC is operational, we will supply that number as well.
NWS Hurricane local report for Irene - Be Prepared!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KILM.shtml
000
WTUS82 KILM 251620
HLSILM
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1220 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
BLADEN...COLUMBUS...INLAND PENDER...COASTAL PENDER...INLAND NEW
HANOVER...COASTAL NEW HANOVER...INLAND BRUNSWICK...COASTAL
BRUNSWICK...INLAND HORRY...COASTAL HORRY...INLAND GEORGETOWN AND
COASTAL GEORGETOWN.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9N...LONGITUDE 76.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTH
OF WILMINGTON NC. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 115 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND...RAIN...AND SURGE
FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS...SO WHEN MAKING DECISIONS
DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. AS MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE
APPROACHES THE AREA...EXPECT AN INCREASING THREAT OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE WAVES AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE...WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ON FRIDAY. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR. A GENERAL
CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHERE WITHIN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS
ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF
LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 3 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
NCZ096-099-105>110-SCZ053>056-252230-
/O.CON.KILM.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-
COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-
INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
1220 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS HAS INCREASED TO 25 PERCENT
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CAPE FEAR...AND 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE
GRAND STRAND. THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS UP TO
85 PERCENT ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND 70 PERCENT OVER THE GRAND STRAND.
THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL UPWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
AREA.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE IRENE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR.
...INLAND FLOODING...
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES
OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...SPIRAL BANDS WELL AWAY FROM
THE CENTER OF THE STORM COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
...COASTAL HAZARDS...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL HAZARDS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL MAKE GOING INTO
THE WATER AT THE BEACHES UNSAFE. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
$$
AMZ250-252-254-256-252230-
/O.CON.KILM.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
1220 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST
STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO
30 PERCENT...AND THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS UP
TO 90 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL UPWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST.
...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEAS
OF 15 TO 25 FEET BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
$$
JDW
000
WTUS82 KILM 251620
HLSILM
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1220 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
BLADEN...COLUMBUS...INLAND PENDER...COASTAL PENDER...INLAND NEW
HANOVER...COASTAL NEW HANOVER...INLAND BRUNSWICK...COASTAL
BRUNSWICK...INLAND HORRY...COASTAL HORRY...INLAND GEORGETOWN AND
COASTAL GEORGETOWN.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9N...LONGITUDE 76.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTH
OF WILMINGTON NC. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 115 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND...RAIN...AND SURGE
FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS...SO WHEN MAKING DECISIONS
DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. AS MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE
APPROACHES THE AREA...EXPECT AN INCREASING THREAT OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE WAVES AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE...WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ON FRIDAY. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR. A GENERAL
CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHERE WITHIN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS
ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF
LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 3 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
NCZ096-099-105>110-SCZ053>056-252230-
/O.CON.KILM.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-
COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-
INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
1220 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS HAS INCREASED TO 25 PERCENT
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CAPE FEAR...AND 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE
GRAND STRAND. THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS UP TO
85 PERCENT ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND 70 PERCENT OVER THE GRAND STRAND.
THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL UPWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
AREA.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE IRENE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR.
...INLAND FLOODING...
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES
OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...SPIRAL BANDS WELL AWAY FROM
THE CENTER OF THE STORM COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
...COASTAL HAZARDS...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL HAZARDS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL MAKE GOING INTO
THE WATER AT THE BEACHES UNSAFE. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
$$
AMZ250-252-254-256-252230-
/O.CON.KILM.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
1220 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST
STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO
30 PERCENT...AND THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS UP
TO 90 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL UPWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST.
...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEAS
OF 15 TO 25 FEET BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
$$
JDW
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_seFnWw-R8zjCZcvoRKI1Q3XGdML5jRGJXhjdeAlbuvCkldJCDsWqSS-v8aHwIFyfWqtTtKuLRb7AFRs8OZpgln707PhuMw0W-8DQ4CkFSyiCulACYv7B8D2jGdpggFNoHHO27ecdW0FZN1BK8JKSQCYZxx3B0L2I521b737A=s0-d)
National Hurricane Center Expects Irene to strengthen to 135 mph sustained winds within 24 hours
National Weather Service - Hurricane Irene Discussion:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 242053
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED NEAR THE EYEWALL AND NOW SOLIDLY SURROUNDS
THE EYE. BEFORE DEPARTING IRENE...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 116 KT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 954 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UW-CIMMS
OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO
PREDICT A HIGH CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. IN FACT...A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE
OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL. THESE EYEWALL CYCLES CAN PRODUCE HARD TO
PREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A
LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. IN 3-4 DAYS....INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT NEARS NEW
ENGLAND.
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/10 KT. IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE. BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER IRENE TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT
TIME. THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 23.1N 74.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 24.3N 75.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.1N 77.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 34.3N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 39.5N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 47.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232053.shtml
000
WTNT44 KNHC 242053
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED NEAR THE EYEWALL AND NOW SOLIDLY SURROUNDS
THE EYE. BEFORE DEPARTING IRENE...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 116 KT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 954 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UW-CIMMS
OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO
PREDICT A HIGH CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. IN FACT...A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE
OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL. THESE EYEWALL CYCLES CAN PRODUCE HARD TO
PREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A
LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. IN 3-4 DAYS....INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT NEARS NEW
ENGLAND.
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/10 KT. IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE. BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER IRENE TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT
TIME. THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 23.1N 74.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 24.3N 75.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.1N 77.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 34.3N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 39.5N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 47.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232053.shtml
Hurricane Irene - Hattaras - Dare County Issues Maditory Evacuation of 150,000 Tourists
Map of North Carolina - http://www.sunbeltguides-nc.com/images/NC_coastal_JPEG_2000X1677.jpg This is awesome link with zoom.
HATTERAS, N.C. (AP) — Officials in North Carolina's coastal Dare County say tourists must leave as Hurricane Irene approaches.
The county issued the order Wednesday night, saying evacuations would begin Thursday at 8 a.m. Dare officials will meet again Thursday to determine if residents need to evacuate.
County spokeswoman Sharon Sullivan says as many as 150,000 tourists may be leaving the county that is home to some of the exposed Outer Banks.
Currituck County officials have asked visitors to think about leaving.
Forecasts have Irene moving over the Outer Banks with winds over 100 mph Saturday.
Evacuations began Wednesday from Ocracoke Island in Hyde County.
http://www.co.dare.nc.us/EmgyMgmt/Alert/index.asp
Dare County Order Evacuation of All Visitors
The Dare County Control Group has ordered a mandatory evacuation for all visitors throughout all of Dare County effective 8:00 a.m., Thursday, August 25.
All visitors are urged to make preparations and leave the area. Dare County Emergency Management urges visitors to take all personal belongings with them during evacuation. Other preparation steps are available at www.ReadyNC.org and www.darenc.com
Although the mandatory evacuation order is for all Dare County visitors, residents are advised to take proper precautions and make general storm preparations. This effort should include securing all loose items outdoors. Monitor local news outlets for further advisories from the National Weather Service and state and local emergency management officials.
A high rip current risk remains in effect, through Thursday evening, south of Rodanthe, NC.
All visitors are urged to make preparations and leave the area. Dare County Emergency Management urges visitors to take all personal belongings with them during evacuation. Other preparation steps are available at www.ReadyNC.org and www.darenc.com
Although the mandatory evacuation order is for all Dare County visitors, residents are advised to take proper precautions and make general storm preparations. This effort should include securing all loose items outdoors. Monitor local news outlets for further advisories from the National Weather Service and state and local emergency management officials.
A high rip current risk remains in effect, through Thursday evening, south of Rodanthe, NC.
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